Pistons, Spurs, Rockets Have Top Odds in the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery
Equal Chances at Victor Wembanyama
The Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, and Houston Rockets have the best chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery, at 14% each. The odds are equal because all three teams finished with the same record of 14-68 during the 2022-23 season.
The Expected Value
The expected value is the average number of wins that a team can expect to have over a large number of simulations. In the case of the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery, the expected value is the average number of times that a team would win the No. 1 pick if the lottery was held many times.
The expected value for the Pistons, Spurs, and Rockets is 0.56 each. This means that if the lottery was held 100 times, each team would be expected to win the No. 1 pick 56 times.
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